Are you listening to fortune tellers? I’m not talking about the lady in the fancy robe looking into a crystal ball. I’m talking about the psychological effect of “cognitive distortion” that happens when we think our instincts are giving us good advice. We can be our worst fortune tellers!
Fortune tellers want us to believe they can “predict the future,” but instead of using facts and data, they rely on their intuition and guesswork to read the situation and play to our beliefs. The problem is that we each do that in our own lives as we wrestle with how to move our teen out of homeschool and into college. We have heard so much propaganda, myths, scare tactics, and extreme examples about what “College” (intentional capital C) wants or requires that we end up paralyzed with fear. Fear is a terrible state of mind to be when you’re trying to run a great homeschool.
With each war story we hear, we get smaller and smaller. Our homeschool plans are more narrow. Our creativity is less. Our flexibility is more rigid. College is coming.
What is “College?” How is it that a pool of 4,000 individual institutions have merged into one entity in our conversations?
Reading a Fact Interpreting it with Fear
Fact: The college requires a 3.0 GPA for admission. Mom’s fear: My son has a 4.0, but should we take dual credit to make it higher?“
Fact: Homeschooling is legal in [state] the diploma is valid, the grades earned are authentic and legitimate. Mom’s fear: My son has straight A’s but I’m thinking about giving him a few B’s so it looks more realistic. Will colleges believe someone can get all A’s?
Fact: At selective universities (top 10%) the average high school GPA is 3.75 and most universities accept 3.0 or above. Mom’s fear: My daughter only earned a B on her last class. I’m going to have her take it again so she can try for an A. Can I leave it off her high school transcript so it doesn’t ruin her GPA?
Fact: Our target university accepts CLEP exams. Mom’s fear: even though we could use CLEP, I have heard that College prefers AP exams so we are doing that instead.
Why This Happens
I firmly believe that every homeschooling parent here can read and understand something like an admissions policy or a CLEP policy, and certainly they can direct their homeschool however they want, but these “fortune-telling” examples aren’t a case of not understanding a policy. These are cases of being so fearful that what we read doesn’t feel safe. There must be more, it must go deeper, and if we don’t uncover the hidden truth, we’re going to miss something. Maybe it’s a case of college being so important that we go to extremes? Unfortunately, the flaw here is that the truth we think we are uncovering is just fortune-telling.
Take this Test
Ask yourself one question. The answer to that question reveals whether or not you’re making sound predictions or whether you’re fortune-telling.
QUESTION: Are all the scenarios I’m predicting negative?
If all the scenarios you’re predicting are negative, you can be sure that you’re fortune-telling! Fortune telling takes us down the path of “worst-case” almost every time because it is born of fear.
Tips for Making Sound Predictions
- Gather direct evidence. Direct evidence can come from many places, and the more evidence you have, the better prediction you should be able to make. For HS4CC families, an example of direct evidence is referring to a published college catalog to inform and guide your actions. Using direct evidence gives you confidence in your decisions.
- Discard circumstantial evidence. Circumstantial evidence is when you make a prediction and then assume it is a fact. If your neighbor’s teen was not admitted to ABC College, you may conclude about “why” even though the college’s rejection letter did not say why he wasn’t accepted. Perhaps you think it was because of his GPA, but it may have been his lack of extracurriculars, his financial background, etc. Using circumstantial evidence is not a sound prediction.
- Testimonials in context. A testimonial is someone’s personal experience. As an example, this blog you’re reading reflects my personal experience. When I write that “76% of colleges accept CLEP exams and 85% accept AP” this is a summary statement based on my research. By counting colleges, calculating percentages, and reporting my findings, I can make the above statement with confidence. Based on my testimony, you might determine that the odds of a future college accepting CLEP or AP is strong enough for you to give it a try (or not) but the way to make a sound prediction is to circle back and find direct evidence! In this example, looking up your target college’s CLEP and AP acceptance policy would give you direct evidence in either direction.
